Al Sahel 1–2 Al-Qadisiyah FC: Result & Stats

Al Sahel

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Al-Qadisiyah FC

11/7/2022

Division 1 · Round 11Prince Fahad bin Salman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Al Sahel30%

×Draw28%

Al-Qadisiyah FC41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al SahelExpected goals in this matchAl-Qadisiyah FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.24

Al Sahel

1.02

Al-Qadisiyah FC

1.24

Al-Qadisiyah FC creates 22% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 72 away

1.11

creates per match

1.24

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Al Sahel

1.11

Al-Qadisiyah FC

1.24

allows per match

Al Sahel

1.24

Al-Qadisiyah FC

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Sahel+0.00on par

Al-Qadisiyah FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Sahel ↓

Al-Qadisiyah FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Al Sahel or draw

59%

Al Sahel or Al-Qadisiyah FC

72%

Draw or Al-Qadisiyah FC

70%

Winning margin

Al Sahel wins by 2+

11%

Al-Qadisiyah FC wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Al Sahel 1+ goals

64%

Al Sahel 2+ goals

27%

Al Sahel 3+ goals

8%

Al-Qadisiyah FC 1+ goals

71%

Al-Qadisiyah FC 2+ goals

35%

Al-Qadisiyah FC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Al Sahel (draw refunded)

42%

Al-Qadisiyah FC (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Sahel at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.24 · 55 matches

Al-Qadisiyah FC away — creates 1.24, concedes 0.92 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Sahel attack 1.11 + Al-Qadisiyah FC defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.02

Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.24 + Al Sahel defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Sahel scores more

30%

level

28%

Al-Qadisiyah FC scores more

41%

Al-Qadisiyah FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al-Qadisiyah FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff