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Al Sahel vs Al Nahdha — Division 1 2018

Al Sahel
Al Sahel
FT
2 – 2
Al Nahdha
Al Nahdha
3/3/2021Division 1Division 1 · Round 24Al Khaleej Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Al Sahel41%
×Draw28%
Al Nahdha31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Sahel
1.25
Al Nahdha
1.04

Al Sahel creates 20% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 60 away

creates per match

Al Sahel
1.11
Al Nahdha
0.85

allows per match

Al Sahel
1.24
Al Nahdha
1.40

finishing

Al Sahel+0.00on par
Al Nahdha+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Sahel ↓

Al Nahdha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Sahel or draw
69%
Al Sahel or Al Nahdha
72%
Draw or Al Nahdha
59%

Winning margin

Al Sahel wins by 2+
18%
Al Nahdha wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Al Sahel 1+ goals
71%
Al Sahel 2+ goals
36%
Al Sahel 3+ goals
13%
Al Nahdha 1+ goals
65%
Al Nahdha 2+ goals
28%
Al Nahdha 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al Sahel (draw refunded)
57%
Al Nahdha (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Sahel at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.24 · 55 matches

Al Nahdha away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.40 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Sahel attack 1.11 + Al Nahdha defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.25

Al Nahdha attack 0.85 + Al Sahel defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Sahel scores more
41%
level
28%
Al Nahdha scores more
31%

Al Sahel at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Sahel 2–2 Al Nahdha

Al Sahel and Al Nahdha drew 2-2 in Division 1 on March 3, 2021.

The match was played at Al Khaleej Club Stadium in Sihat.