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Al Sahel vs Al-Faisaly FC — Division 1 2018

Al Sahel
Al Sahel
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Al-Faisaly FC
Al-Faisaly FC
4/7/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 22Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Al Sahel32%
×Draw27%
Al-Faisaly FC41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Sahel
1.15
Al-Faisaly FC
1.35

Al-Faisaly FC creates 17% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 68 away

creates per match

Al Sahel
1.11
Al-Faisaly FC
1.47

allows per match

Al Sahel
1.24
Al-Faisaly FC
1.18

finishing

Al Sahel+0.00on par
Al-Faisaly FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Sahel ↓

Al-Faisaly FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Sahel or draw
59%
Al Sahel or Al-Faisaly FC
73%
Draw or Al-Faisaly FC
68%

Winning margin

Al Sahel wins by 2+
13%
Al-Faisaly FC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Al Sahel 1+ goals
68%
Al Sahel 2+ goals
32%
Al Sahel 3+ goals
11%
Al-Faisaly FC 1+ goals
74%
Al-Faisaly FC 2+ goals
39%
Al-Faisaly FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Al Sahel (draw refunded)
44%
Al-Faisaly FC (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Sahel at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.24 · 55 matches

Al-Faisaly FC away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Sahel attack 1.11 + Al-Faisaly FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.47 + Al Sahel defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Sahel scores more
32%
level
27%
Al-Faisaly FC scores more
41%

Al-Faisaly FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al-Faisaly FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Sahel vs Al-Faisaly FC

Al Sahel and Al-Faisaly FC drew 1-1 in Division 1 on April 7, 2023.

The match was played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium in Khobar.