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Al Sahel vs Al Bukayriyah — Division 1 2018

Al Sahel
Al Sahel
FT
0 – 0
Al Bukayriyah
Al Bukayriyah
10/21/2020Division 1Division 1 · Round 1Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Al Sahel37%
×Draw28%
Al Bukayriyah35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Sahel
1.19
Al Bukayriyah
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 89 away

creates per match

Al Sahel
1.11
Al Bukayriyah
1.03

allows per match

Al Sahel
1.24
Al Bukayriyah
1.26

finishing

Al Sahel+0.00on par
Al Bukayriyah+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Sahel ↓

Al Bukayriyah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Sahel or draw
65%
Al Sahel or Al Bukayriyah
72%
Draw or Al Bukayriyah
63%

Winning margin

Al Sahel wins by 2+
16%
Al Bukayriyah wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Al Sahel 1+ goals
70%
Al Sahel 2+ goals
33%
Al Sahel 3+ goals
12%
Al Bukayriyah 1+ goals
68%
Al Bukayriyah 2+ goals
32%
Al Bukayriyah 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al Sahel (draw refunded)
52%
Al Bukayriyah (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Sahel at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.24 · 55 matches

Al Bukayriyah away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.26 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Sahel attack 1.11 + Al Bukayriyah defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Al Bukayriyah attack 1.03 + Al Sahel defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al Sahel scores more
37%
level
28%
Al Bukayriyah scores more
35%

Al Sahel at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Sahel 0–0 Al Bukayriyah

Al Sahel and Al Bukayriyah drew 0-0 in Division 1 on October 21, 2020.

The match was played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium in Khobar.