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Al Sahel vs Al-Ain — Division 1 2018

Al Sahel
Al Sahel
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al-Ain
Al-Ain
8/29/2022Division 1Division 1 · Round 2Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Al Sahel39%
×Draw28%
Al-Ain33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Sahel
1.21
Al-Ain
1.08

Al Sahel creates 12% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 89 away

creates per match

Al Sahel
1.11
Al-Ain
0.92

allows per match

Al Sahel
1.24
Al-Ain
1.31

finishing

Al Sahel+0.00on par
Al-Ain+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Sahel ↓

Al-Ain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Sahel or draw
67%
Al Sahel or Al-Ain
72%
Draw or Al-Ain
61%

Winning margin

Al Sahel wins by 2+
17%
Al-Ain wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Al Sahel 1+ goals
70%
Al Sahel 2+ goals
34%
Al Sahel 3+ goals
12%
Al-Ain 1+ goals
66%
Al-Ain 2+ goals
29%
Al-Ain 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Al Sahel (draw refunded)
54%
Al-Ain (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Sahel at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.24 · 55 matches

Al-Ain away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.31 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Sahel attack 1.11 + Al-Ain defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.21

Al-Ain attack 0.92 + Al Sahel defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Sahel scores more
39%
level
28%
Al-Ain scores more
33%

Al Sahel at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Sahel vs Al-Ain

Al Sahel beat Al-Ain 2-1 in Division 1 on August 29, 2022.

The match was played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium in Khobar.