Al Sahel 1–3 Al-Ahli Jeddah: Result & Stats

Al Sahel

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Al-Ahli Jeddah

4/24/2023

Division 1 · Round 29Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al Sahel24%

×Draw29%

Al-Ahli Jeddah47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al SahelExpected goals in this matchAl-Ahli Jeddah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.82

1.27

Al Sahel

0.82

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.27

Al-Ahli Jeddah creates 55% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 17 away

1.11

creates per match

1.29

1.24

allows per match

0.53

creates per match

Al Sahel

1.11

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.29

allows per match

Al Sahel

1.24

Al-Ahli Jeddah

0.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Sahel+0.00on par

Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Sahel ↓

Al-Ahli Jeddah →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–116%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Al Sahel or draw

53%

Al Sahel or Al-Ahli Jeddah

71%

Draw or Al-Ahli Jeddah

76%

Winning margin

Al Sahel wins by 2+

8%

Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Al Sahel 1+ goals

56%

Al Sahel 2+ goals

20%

Al Sahel 3+ goals

5%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals

72%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals

36%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Al Sahel (draw refunded)

34%

Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Sahel at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.24 · 55 matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Sahel attack 1.11 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.82

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.29 + Al Sahel defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Al Sahel scores more

24%

level

29%

Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more

47%

Al-Ahli Jeddah at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al-Ahli Jeddah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff