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Al Saham Ad Damer vs Al Hilal Karima — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Saham Ad Damer
Al Saham Ad Damer
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Hilal Karima
Al Hilal Karima
2/13/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Al Saham Ad Damer39%
×Draw33%
Al Hilal Karima28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Saham Ad Damer
1.00
Al Hilal Karima
0.80

Al Saham Ad Damer creates 25% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Al Saham Ad Damer
0.40
Al Hilal Karima
0.80

allows per match

Al Saham Ad Damer
0.80
Al Hilal Karima
1.60

finishing

Al Saham Ad Damer+0.00on par
Al Hilal Karima+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Saham Ad Damer ↓

Al Hilal Karima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Al Saham Ad Damer or draw
72%
Al Saham Ad Damer or Al Hilal Karima
67%
Draw or Al Hilal Karima
61%

Winning margin

Al Saham Ad Damer wins by 2+
15%
Al Hilal Karima wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al Saham Ad Damer 1+ goals
63%
Al Saham Ad Damer 2+ goals
26%
Al Saham Ad Damer 3+ goals
8%
Al Hilal Karima 1+ goals
55%
Al Hilal Karima 2+ goals
19%
Al Hilal Karima 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al Saham Ad Damer (draw refunded)
58%
Al Hilal Karima (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Saham Ad Damer at home — creates 0.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Al Hilal Karima away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Saham Ad Damer attack 0.40 + Al Hilal Karima defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.00

Al Hilal Karima attack 0.80 + Al Saham Ad Damer defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Saham Ad Damer scores more
39%
level
33%
Al Hilal Karima scores more
28%

Al Saham Ad Damer at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Saham Ad Damer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al Saham Ad Damer 0–1 Al Hilal Karima

Al Hilal Karima beat Al Saham Ad Damer 1-0 in Sudani Premier League on February 13, 2026.