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Al Safa vs Al Jabalain — Division 1 2018

Al Safa
Al Safa
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Al Jabalain
Al Jabalain
5/15/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 32Al Safwa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Al Safa33%
×Draw25%
Al Jabalain42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Safa
1.29
Al Jabalain
1.48

Al Jabalain creates 15% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 128 away

creates per match

Al Safa
1.47
Al Jabalain
1.17

allows per match

Al Safa
1.79
Al Jabalain
1.11

finishing

Al Safa+0.00on par
Al Jabalain+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Safa ↓

Al Jabalain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Al Safa or draw
58%
Al Safa or Al Jabalain
75%
Draw or Al Jabalain
67%

Winning margin

Al Safa wins by 2+
14%
Al Jabalain wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Al Safa 1+ goals
72%
Al Safa 2+ goals
37%
Al Safa 3+ goals
14%
Al Jabalain 1+ goals
77%
Al Jabalain 2+ goals
43%
Al Jabalain 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Al Safa (draw refunded)
44%
Al Jabalain (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Safa at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

Al Jabalain away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.11 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Safa attack 1.47 + Al Jabalain defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.29

Al Jabalain attack 1.17 + Al Safa defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Safa scores more
33%
level
25%
Al Jabalain scores more
42%

Al Jabalain at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Jabalain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Safa 5–1 Al Jabalain

Al Safa beat Al Jabalain 5-1 in Division 1 on May 15, 2024.

The match was played at Al Safwa Stadium in Safwa.