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Al Safa vs Al-Faisaly FC — Division 1 2018

Al Safa
Al Safa
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Al-Faisaly FC
Al-Faisaly FC
3/16/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 26Al Safwa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Al Safa31%
×Draw24%
Al-Faisaly FC45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Safa
1.32
Al-Faisaly FC
1.63

Al-Faisaly FC creates 23% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 68 away

creates per match

Al Safa
1.47
Al-Faisaly FC
1.47

allows per match

Al Safa
1.79
Al-Faisaly FC
1.18

finishing

Al Safa+0.00on par
Al-Faisaly FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Safa ↓

Al-Faisaly FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Al Safa or draw
55%
Al Safa or Al-Faisaly FC
76%
Draw or Al-Faisaly FC
69%

Winning margin

Al Safa wins by 2+
13%
Al-Faisaly FC wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Al Safa 1+ goals
73%
Al Safa 2+ goals
38%
Al Safa 3+ goals
15%
Al-Faisaly FC 1+ goals
80%
Al-Faisaly FC 2+ goals
48%
Al-Faisaly FC 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Al Safa (draw refunded)
41%
Al-Faisaly FC (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Safa at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

Al-Faisaly FC away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Safa attack 1.47 + Al-Faisaly FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.32

Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.47 + Al Safa defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al Safa scores more
31%
level
24%
Al-Faisaly FC scores more
45%

Al-Faisaly FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al-Faisaly FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Safa 3–1 Al-Faisaly FC

Al Safa beat Al-Faisaly FC 3-1 in Division 1 on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Al Safwa Stadium in Safwa.