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Al Safa vs Al Bukayriyah — Division 1 2018

Al Safa
Al Safa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al Bukayriyah
Al Bukayriyah
12/11/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 13Al Safwa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Al Safa36%
×Draw25%
Al Bukayriyah38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Safa
1.36
Al Bukayriyah
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 89 away

creates per match

Al Safa
1.47
Al Bukayriyah
1.03

allows per match

Al Safa
1.79
Al Bukayriyah
1.26

finishing

Al Safa+0.00on par
Al Bukayriyah+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Safa ↓

Al Bukayriyah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Al Safa or draw
62%
Al Safa or Al Bukayriyah
75%
Draw or Al Bukayriyah
64%

Winning margin

Al Safa wins by 2+
16%
Al Bukayriyah wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Al Safa 1+ goals
74%
Al Safa 2+ goals
39%
Al Safa 3+ goals
16%
Al Bukayriyah 1+ goals
76%
Al Bukayriyah 2+ goals
41%
Al Bukayriyah 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Al Safa (draw refunded)
48%
Al Bukayriyah (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Safa at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

Al Bukayriyah away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.26 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Safa attack 1.47 + Al Bukayriyah defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.36

Al Bukayriyah attack 1.03 + Al Safa defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Safa scores more
36%
level
25%
Al Bukayriyah scores more
38%

Al Bukayriyah at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Bukayriyah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Safa 2–1 Al Bukayriyah

Al Safa beat Al Bukayriyah 2-1 in Division 1 on December 11, 2024.

The match was played at Al Safwa Stadium in Safwa.