Al Sadd 4–2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai: Result & Stats

Al Sadd

FT

4 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

R. Mujica 90', 90', 75'

T. Salman 90'

Y. Al Ghassani 70' (pen)

F. Cartabia 47'

12/23/2025

AFC Champions League · League Phase West - 6Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al Sadd53%

×Draw23%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al SaddExpected goals in this matchShabab Al Ahli Dubai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.19

Al Sadd

1.85

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

1.19

Al Sadd creates 55% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 17 away

2.06

creates per match

1.24

1.15

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Al Sadd

2.06

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

1.24

allows per match

Al Sadd

1.15

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Sadd+0.00on par

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Sadd ↓

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Al Sadd or draw

76%

Al Sadd or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

77%

Draw or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

47%

Winning margin

Al Sadd wins by 2+

30%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Al Sadd 1+ goals

84%

Al Sadd 2+ goals

55%

Al Sadd 3+ goals

28%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1+ goals

70%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2+ goals

33%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Al Sadd (draw refunded)

68%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Sadd at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.15 · 33 matches

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Sadd attack 2.06 + Shabab Al Ahli Dubai defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.85

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.24 + Al Sadd defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Al Sadd scores more

53%

level

23%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai scores more

24%

Al Sadd at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Al Sadd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

F. Cartabia

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · M

8.3

Match Events

6'

T. Salman← A. Suhail

17'

Bogdan Planić

46'

N. Maksimovic← G. Alvarez

47'

F. Cartabia↳ M. Seifi

61'

Y. Al Ghassani← Yuri Cesar

67'

Hamad Al Meqebaali

67'

Federico CartabiaPenalty confirmed

68'

Pedro Miguel

70'

R. Mujica← P. Prim

70'

Y. Al GhassaniPenalty

75'

75'

76'

77'

77'

81'

H. Ali← Giovani

82'

Mateus Henrique← F. Cartabia

90+11'

Rafa Mújica

90'

T. Salman↳ Roberto Firmino

90'

R. Mujica

90'

R. Mujica↳ A. Afif

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlShabab

Overview

57%Possession43%

20Total Shots12

6Corners1

5Fouls5

Shots

20Total Shots12

7On Target5

8Off Target5

5Blocked2

12Inside Box9

8Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

486Total Passes380

415Accurate Passes318

85%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

5Fouls5

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2