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Al Sadd vs Foolad FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Al Sadd
Al Sadd
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Foolad FC
Foolad FC
4/14/2021AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group D - 1King Fahd International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Al Sadd48%
×Draw27%
Foolad FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Sadd
1.39
Foolad FC
0.93

Al Sadd creates 49% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 7 away

creates per match

Al Sadd
2.06
Foolad FC
0.71

allows per match

Al Sadd
1.15
Foolad FC
0.71

finishing

Al Sadd+0.00on par
Foolad FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Sadd ↓

Foolad FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Sadd or draw
75%
Al Sadd or Foolad FC
73%
Draw or Foolad FC
52%

Winning margin

Al Sadd wins by 2+
23%
Foolad FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al Sadd 1+ goals
75%
Al Sadd 2+ goals
40%
Al Sadd 3+ goals
16%
Foolad FC 1+ goals
61%
Foolad FC 2+ goals
24%
Foolad FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al Sadd (draw refunded)
65%
Foolad FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Sadd at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.15 · 33 matches

Foolad FC away — creates 0.71, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Sadd attack 2.06 + Foolad FC defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.39

Foolad FC attack 0.71 + Al Sadd defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Al Sadd scores more
48%
level
27%
Foolad FC scores more
25%

Al Sadd at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al Sadd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Sadd vs Foolad FC

Al Sadd and Foolad FC drew 1-1 in AFC Champions League on April 14, 2021.

The match was played at King Fahd International Stadium in Riyadh.