Al Sadd 2–1 Al-Wasl FC: Result & Stats

Al Sadd

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Al-Wasl FC

B. Bounedjah 53', 9'

Caio 90+2'

4/2/2018

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 5Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al Sadd63%

×Draw20%

Al-Wasl FC17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al SaddExpected goals in this matchAl-Wasl FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

0.98

Al Sadd

2.12

Al-Wasl FC

0.98

Al Sadd creates 116% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 11 away

2.06

creates per match

0.82

1.15

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Al Sadd

2.06

Al-Wasl FC

0.82

allows per match

Al Sadd

1.15

Al-Wasl FC

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Sadd+0.00on par

Al-Wasl FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Sadd ↓

Al-Wasl FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Al Sadd or draw

83%

Al Sadd or Al-Wasl FC

80%

Draw or Al-Wasl FC

37%

Winning margin

Al Sadd wins by 2+

40%

Al-Wasl FC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Al Sadd 1+ goals

88%

Al Sadd 2+ goals

62%

Al Sadd 3+ goals

35%

Al-Wasl FC 1+ goals

62%

Al-Wasl FC 2+ goals

26%

Al-Wasl FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Al Sadd (draw refunded)

79%

Al-Wasl FC (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Sadd at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.15 · 33 matches

Al-Wasl FC away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Sadd attack 2.06 + Al-Wasl FC defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.12

Al-Wasl FC attack 0.82 + Al Sadd defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Al Sadd scores more

63%

level

20%

Al-Wasl FC scores more

17%

Al Sadd at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Al Sadd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

B. Bounedjah

Al Sadd · F

8.1

Match Events

9'

B. Bounedjah

34'

Ali Abdulla Ali← Hazza Salem

45'

Abdulrahman Ali

46'

Caio← Ali Saleh

53'

B. Bounedjah↳ Akram Afif

71'

Abdelkarim Hassan

74'

Ali Assadalla← Hassan Al Heidos

80'

Boualem Khoukhi← Abdelkarim Hassan

83'

Khaleil Khameis Salem← Hamad Al Balooshi

90'

Humaid Abbas

90+3'

M. Pouraliganji← Ahmed Suhail

90+2'

Caio↳ Ronaldo Mendes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlAl-Wasl

Overview

47%Possession53%

13Total Shots10

7Corners4

16Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots10

4On Target4

6Off Target6

3Blocked0

10Inside Box4

3Outside Box6

Passing

47%Possession53%

417Total Passes490

353Accurate Passes403

85%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

3Offsides0