Al Sadaqa 2–0 Ngom Ajdabiya: Result & Stats

Al Sadaqa

FT

2 – 0

Ngom Ajdabiya

2/16/2021

Premier League · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al Sadaqa55%

×Draw26%

Ngom Ajdabiya19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al SadaqaExpected goals in this matchNgom Ajdabiya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.78

Al Sadaqa

1.53

Ngom Ajdabiya

0.78

Al Sadaqa creates 96% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 11 away

1.24

creates per match

0.55

1.00

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Al Sadaqa

1.24

Ngom Ajdabiya

0.55

allows per match

Al Sadaqa

1.00

Ngom Ajdabiya

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Sadaqa+0.00on par

Ngom Ajdabiya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Sadaqa ↓

Ngom Ajdabiya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Al Sadaqa or draw

81%

Al Sadaqa or Ngom Ajdabiya

74%

Draw or Ngom Ajdabiya

45%

Winning margin

Al Sadaqa wins by 2+

29%

Ngom Ajdabiya wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Al Sadaqa 1+ goals

78%

Al Sadaqa 2+ goals

45%

Al Sadaqa 3+ goals

20%

Ngom Ajdabiya 1+ goals

54%

Ngom Ajdabiya 2+ goals

18%

Ngom Ajdabiya 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Al Sadaqa (draw refunded)

74%

Ngom Ajdabiya (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Sadaqa at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.00 · 58 matches

Ngom Ajdabiya away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Sadaqa attack 1.24 + Ngom Ajdabiya defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.53

Ngom Ajdabiya attack 0.55 + Al Sadaqa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Al Sadaqa scores more

55%

level

26%

Ngom Ajdabiya scores more

19%

Al Sadaqa at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Al Sadaqa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff