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Al Sadaqa vs Al Mahdia — Premier League 2019

Al Sadaqa
Al Sadaqa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al Mahdia
Al Mahdia
1/16/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · East - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Al Sadaqa63%
×Draw23%
Al Mahdia15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Sadaqa
1.77
Al Mahdia
0.71

Al Sadaqa creates 149% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 7 away

creates per match

Al Sadaqa
1.24
Al Mahdia
0.43

allows per match

Al Sadaqa
1.00
Al Mahdia
2.29

finishing

Al Sadaqa+0.00on par
Al Mahdia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Sadaqa ↓

Al Mahdia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Sadaqa or draw
85%
Al Sadaqa or Al Mahdia
77%
Draw or Al Mahdia
37%

Winning margin

Al Sadaqa wins by 2+
36%
Al Mahdia wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Al Sadaqa 1+ goals
83%
Al Sadaqa 2+ goals
53%
Al Sadaqa 3+ goals
26%
Al Mahdia 1+ goals
51%
Al Mahdia 2+ goals
16%
Al Mahdia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Al Sadaqa (draw refunded)
81%
Al Mahdia (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Sadaqa at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.00 · 58 matches

Al Mahdia away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Sadaqa attack 1.24 + Al Mahdia defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.77

Al Mahdia attack 0.43 + Al Sadaqa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Al Sadaqa scores more
63%
level
23%
Al Mahdia scores more
15%

Al Sadaqa at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Al Sadaqa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Sadaqa vs Al Mahdia

Al Sadaqa beat Al Mahdia 2-1 in Premier League on January 16, 2025.