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Al-Rustaq vs Al Suwaiq — Professional League 2019

Al-Rustaq
Al-Rustaq
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Suwaiq
Al Suwaiq
9/9/2022Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 4AL Rustaq Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Al-Rustaq37%
×Draw29%
Al Suwaiq33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Rustaq
1.12
Al Suwaiq
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 43 away

creates per match

Al-Rustaq
1.01
Al Suwaiq
1.02

allows per match

Al-Rustaq
1.06
Al Suwaiq
1.23

finishing

Al-Rustaq+0.00on par
Al Suwaiq+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Rustaq ↓

Al Suwaiq →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al-Rustaq or draw
67%
Al-Rustaq or Al Suwaiq
71%
Draw or Al Suwaiq
63%

Winning margin

Al-Rustaq wins by 2+
15%
Al Suwaiq wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Al-Rustaq 1+ goals
67%
Al-Rustaq 2+ goals
31%
Al-Rustaq 3+ goals
10%
Al Suwaiq 1+ goals
65%
Al Suwaiq 2+ goals
28%
Al Suwaiq 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al-Rustaq (draw refunded)
53%
Al Suwaiq (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Rustaq at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.06 · 80 matches

Al Suwaiq away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.23 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Rustaq attack 1.01 + Al Suwaiq defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.12

Al Suwaiq attack 1.02 + Al-Rustaq defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al-Rustaq scores more
37%
level
29%
Al Suwaiq scores more
33%

Al-Rustaq at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al-Rustaq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Professional League: Al-Rustaq 1–0 Al Suwaiq

Al-Rustaq beat Al Suwaiq 1-0 in Professional League on September 9, 2022.

The match was played at AL Rustaq Sports Complex in Rustaq.