Al-Rustaq 2–1 Al Bashair: Result & Stats

Al-Rustaq

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Al Bashair

12/7/2022

Professional League · Round 12AL Rustaq Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Al-Rustaq46%

×Draw30%

Al Bashair24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-RustaqExpected goals in this matchAl Bashair

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.80

Al-Rustaq

1.23

Al Bashair

0.80

Al-Rustaq creates 54% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 13 away

1.01

creates per match

0.54

1.06

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Al-Rustaq

1.01

Al Bashair

0.54

allows per match

Al-Rustaq

1.06

Al Bashair

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Rustaq+0.00on par

Al Bashair+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Rustaq ↓

Al Bashair →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Al-Rustaq or draw

76%

Al-Rustaq or Al Bashair

70%

Draw or Al Bashair

54%

Winning margin

Al-Rustaq wins by 2+

21%

Al Bashair wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Al-Rustaq 1+ goals

71%

Al-Rustaq 2+ goals

35%

Al-Rustaq 3+ goals

13%

Al Bashair 1+ goals

55%

Al Bashair 2+ goals

19%

Al Bashair 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Al-Rustaq (draw refunded)

66%

Al Bashair (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Rustaq at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.06 · 80 matches

Al Bashair away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Rustaq attack 1.01 + Al Bashair defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Al Bashair attack 0.54 + Al-Rustaq defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al-Rustaq scores more

46%

level

30%

Al Bashair scores more

24%

Al-Rustaq at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al-Rustaq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff