Al Riyadh 3–2 Najran: Result & Stats | Division 1

Al Riyadh

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

Najran

9/17/2022

Division 1 · Round 5King Fahd International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al Riyadh38%

×Draw27%

Najran36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al RiyadhExpected goals in this matchNajran

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.25

Al Riyadh

1.29

Najran

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 77 away

1.35

creates per match

1.10

1.41

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Al Riyadh

1.35

Najran

1.10

allows per match

Al Riyadh

1.41

Najran

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Riyadh+0.00on par

Najran+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Riyadh ↓

Najran →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Al Riyadh or draw

64%

Al Riyadh or Najran

73%

Draw or Najran

62%

Winning margin

Al Riyadh wins by 2+

17%

Najran wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Al Riyadh 1+ goals

72%

Al Riyadh 2+ goals

37%

Al Riyadh 3+ goals

14%

Najran 1+ goals

71%

Najran 2+ goals

36%

Najran 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Al Riyadh (draw refunded)

51%

Najran (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Riyadh at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Najran away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.23 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Riyadh attack 1.35 + Najran defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Najran attack 1.10 + Al Riyadh defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Riyadh scores more

38%

level

27%

Najran scores more

36%

Al Riyadh at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Riyadh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff