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Al Riyadh vs Al-Raed — Pro League 2018

Al Riyadh
Al Riyadh
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Al-Raed
Al-Raed
2/20/2025Pro LeaguePro League · Round 21Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Al Riyadh37%
×Draw26%
Al-Raed37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Riyadh
1.32
Al-Raed
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 109 away

creates per match

Al Riyadh
0.94
Al-Raed
1.35

allows per match

Al Riyadh
1.31
Al-Raed
1.71

finishing

Al Riyadh+0.00on par
Al-Raed+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Riyadh ↓

Al-Raed →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Al Riyadh or draw
63%
Al Riyadh or Al-Raed
74%
Draw or Al-Raed
63%

Winning margin

Al Riyadh wins by 2+
16%
Al-Raed wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Al Riyadh 1+ goals
73%
Al Riyadh 2+ goals
38%
Al Riyadh 3+ goals
15%
Al-Raed 1+ goals
74%
Al-Raed 2+ goals
38%
Al-Raed 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Al Riyadh (draw refunded)
50%
Al-Raed (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Riyadh at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

Al-Raed away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.71 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Riyadh attack 0.94 + Al-Raed defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.32

Al-Raed attack 1.35 + Al Riyadh defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al Riyadh scores more
37%
level
26%
Al-Raed scores more
37%

Al Riyadh at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al Riyadh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Riyadh vs Al-Raed

Al-Raed beat Al Riyadh 3-1 in Pro League on February 20, 2025.

The match was played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Riyadh.