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Al Riffa vs Sitra — Premier League 2019

Al Riffa
Al Riffa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sitra
Sitra
4/27/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Madinat 'Isa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Al Riffa48%
×Draw25%
Sitra28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Riffa
1.63
Sitra
1.19

Al Riffa creates 37% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 44 away

creates per match

Al Riffa
1.92
Sitra
1.45

allows per match

Al Riffa
0.93
Sitra
1.34

finishing

Al Riffa+0.00on par
Sitra+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Riffa ↓

Sitra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Al Riffa or draw
72%
Al Riffa or Sitra
75%
Draw or Sitra
52%

Winning margin

Al Riffa wins by 2+
25%
Sitra wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Riffa 1+ goals
80%
Al Riffa 2+ goals
48%
Al Riffa 3+ goals
22%
Sitra 1+ goals
70%
Sitra 2+ goals
33%
Sitra 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Al Riffa (draw refunded)
63%
Sitra (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Riffa at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.93 · 71 matches

Sitra away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Riffa attack 1.92 + Sitra defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.63

Sitra attack 1.45 + Al Riffa defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Al Riffa scores more
48%
level
25%
Sitra scores more
28%

Al Riffa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al Riffa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Riffa vs Sitra

Al Riffa and Sitra drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Madinat 'Isa Stadium in Manama.