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Al Riffa vs Shabab Al Khaleel — AFC Cup 2018

Al Riffa
Al Riffa
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Shabab Al Khaleel
Shabab Al Khaleel
5/24/2022AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Al Kuwait Sports Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Al Riffa62%
×Draw20%
Shabab Al Khaleel18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Riffa
2.15
Shabab Al Khaleel
1.05

Al Riffa creates 105% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Al Riffa
2.29
Shabab Al Khaleel
0.67

allows per match

Al Riffa
1.43
Shabab Al Khaleel
2.00

finishing

Al Riffa+0.00on par
Shabab Al Khaleel+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Riffa ↓

Shabab Al Khaleel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Al Riffa or draw
82%
Al Riffa or Shabab Al Khaleel
80%
Draw or Shabab Al Khaleel
38%

Winning margin

Al Riffa wins by 2+
39%
Shabab Al Khaleel wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Al Riffa 1+ goals
88%
Al Riffa 2+ goals
63%
Al Riffa 3+ goals
36%
Shabab Al Khaleel 1+ goals
65%
Shabab Al Khaleel 2+ goals
28%
Shabab Al Khaleel 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al Riffa (draw refunded)
78%
Shabab Al Khaleel (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Riffa at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Shabab Al Khaleel away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Riffa attack 2.29 + Shabab Al Khaleel defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.15

Shabab Al Khaleel attack 0.67 + Al Riffa defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Al Riffa scores more
62%
level
20%
Shabab Al Khaleel scores more
18%

Al Riffa at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Al Riffa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Al Riffa 3–1 Shabab Al Khaleel

Al Riffa beat Shabab Al Khaleel 3-1 in AFC Cup on May 24, 2022.

The match was played at Al Kuwait Sports Club Stadium in Kuwait City.