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Al Riffa vs Dhofar — AFC Cup 2018

Al Riffa
Al Riffa
CANC
13:00
Dhofar
Dhofar
10/26/2020AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Stad al-Bahrayn al-Watani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Al Riffa44%
×Draw25%
Dhofar30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Riffa
1.52
Dhofar
1.21

Al Riffa creates 26% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Al Riffa
2.29
Dhofar
1.00

allows per match

Al Riffa
1.43
Dhofar
0.75

finishing

Al Riffa+0.00on par
Dhofar+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Riffa ↓

Dhofar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Al Riffa or draw
70%
Al Riffa or Dhofar
75%
Draw or Dhofar
56%

Winning margin

Al Riffa wins by 2+
22%
Dhofar wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Al Riffa 1+ goals
78%
Al Riffa 2+ goals
45%
Al Riffa 3+ goals
20%
Dhofar 1+ goals
70%
Dhofar 2+ goals
34%
Dhofar 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Al Riffa (draw refunded)
59%
Dhofar (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Riffa at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Dhofar away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Riffa attack 2.29 + Dhofar defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.52

Dhofar attack 1.00 + Al Riffa defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Riffa scores more
44%
level
25%
Dhofar scores more
30%

Al Riffa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Riffa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al Riffa vs Dhofar — Match Preview

Al Riffa face Dhofar on October 26, 2020 in this AFC Cup fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Al Riffa host Dhofar at Stad al-Bahrayn al-Watani.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.