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Al Riffa vs Bahrain SC — Premier League 2019

Al Riffa
Al Riffa
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Bahrain SC
Bahrain SC
S. Frioui 86', 59'
Wellington 56'
Vinicius Vargas 16'
Joel 90+3'
Sultan Alsalatna 45'
Denilson 1'
5/26/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Stād al-Bahrayn al-Watanī

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Al Riffa64%
×Draw20%
Bahrain SC15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Riffa
2.04
Bahrain SC
0.88

Al Riffa creates 132% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 36 away

creates per match

Al Riffa
1.90
Bahrain SC
0.83

allows per match

Al Riffa
0.93
Bahrain SC
2.19

finishing

Al Riffa+0.00on par
Bahrain SC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Riffa ↓

Bahrain SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Al Riffa or draw
85%
Al Riffa or Bahrain SC
80%
Draw or Bahrain SC
36%

Winning margin

Al Riffa wins by 2+
40%
Bahrain SC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Al Riffa 1+ goals
87%
Al Riffa 2+ goals
60%
Al Riffa 3+ goals
33%
Bahrain SC 1+ goals
59%
Bahrain SC 2+ goals
22%
Bahrain SC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al Riffa (draw refunded)
81%
Bahrain SC (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Riffa at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.93 · 70 matches

Bahrain SC away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Riffa attack 1.90 + Bahrain SC defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.04

Bahrain SC attack 0.83 + Al Riffa defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Al Riffa scores more
64%
level
20%
Bahrain SC scores more
15%

Al Riffa at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Al Riffa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
Denilson
16'
Vinicius Vargas
45'
Sultan Alsalatna
56'
Wellington
59'
S. Frioui
86'
S. Frioui
90+3'
Joel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Riffa 4–3 Bahrain SC

Al Riffa beat Bahrain SC 4-3 in Premier League on May 26, 2025.

Goals: Denilson (1'), Vinicius Vargas (16'), Sultan Alsalatna (45'), Wellington (56'), S. Frioui (59', 86'), Joel (90+3').

The match was played at Stād al-Bahrayn al-Watanī in Riffa.