Al-Rayyan SC 2–2 Esteghlal FC: Result & Stats

Al-Rayyan SC

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Esteghlal FC

Rodrigo Barbosa Tabata 28'

A. Hamdallah 18'

A. Ghorbani 88'

Rodrigo Barbosa Tabata 6' (OG)

2/13/2018

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Al-Rayyan SC32%

×Draw24%

Esteghlal FC44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Rayyan SCExpected goals in this matchEsteghlal FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.65

Al-Rayyan SC

1.38

Esteghlal FC

1.65

Esteghlal FC creates 20% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

1.20

creates per match

1.35

1.95

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Al-Rayyan SC

1.20

Esteghlal FC

1.35

allows per match

Al-Rayyan SC

1.95

Esteghlal FC

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Rayyan SC+0.00on par

Esteghlal FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Rayyan SC ↓

Esteghlal FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Al-Rayyan SC or draw

56%

Al-Rayyan SC or Esteghlal FC

76%

Draw or Esteghlal FC

68%

Winning margin

Al-Rayyan SC wins by 2+

14%

Esteghlal FC wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Al-Rayyan SC 1+ goals

75%

Al-Rayyan SC 2+ goals

40%

Al-Rayyan SC 3+ goals

16%

Esteghlal FC 1+ goals

81%

Esteghlal FC 2+ goals

49%

Esteghlal FC 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Al-Rayyan SC (draw refunded)

42%

Esteghlal FC (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Rayyan SC at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches

Esteghlal FC away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Rayyan SC attack 1.20 + Esteghlal FC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.38

Esteghlal FC attack 1.35 + Al-Rayyan SC defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al-Rayyan SC scores more

32%

level

24%

Esteghlal FC scores more

44%

Esteghlal FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Esteghlal FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

A. Hamdallah

Al-Rayyan SC · F

8.7

Match Events

6'

Rodrigo Barbosa TabataOwn goal

13'

Rodrigo Tabata

18'

A. Hamdallah↳ Rodrigo Barbosa Tabata

28'

Rodrigo Barbosa Tabata↳ A. Hamdallah

46'

M. Thiam← J. Ansari

62'

Mohamed Al Aeldin

65'

M. Moutouali← Sebastián Soria

81'

Rodrigo Tabata

81'

Rodrigo Tabata

82'

Mohsine Moutouali

83'

B. Barzay← R. Cheshmi

86'

Musa Haroon← Ko Myong-Jin

88'

A. Ghorbani↳ O. Ebrahimi

90'

Mohammed Kasola← Ahmed El Sayed

90+1'

F. Bagheri← P. Montazeri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-RayyanEsteghlal

Overview

38%Possession62%

9Total Shots17

1Corners7

8Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots17

6On Target3

2Off Target9

1Blocked5

6Inside Box13

3Outside Box5

Passing

38%Possession62%

347Total Passes537

269Accurate Passes469

78%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls13

4Yellow Cards0

1Red Cards0

0Offsides8