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Al Ramms vs Baynounah SC — Division 1 2018

Al Ramms
Al Ramms
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Baynounah SC
Baynounah SC
2/4/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 20Al Rams Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Al Ramms51%
×Draw22%
Baynounah SC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ramms
2.00
Baynounah SC
1.43

Al Ramms creates 40% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 16 away

creates per match

Al Ramms
1.24
Baynounah SC
0.69

allows per match

Al Ramms
2.17
Baynounah SC
2.75

finishing

Al Ramms+0.00on par
Baynounah SC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ramms ↓

Baynounah SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Al Ramms or draw
72%
Al Ramms or Baynounah SC
78%
Draw or Baynounah SC
49%

Winning margin

Al Ramms wins by 2+
29%
Baynounah SC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Al Ramms 1+ goals
86%
Al Ramms 2+ goals
59%
Al Ramms 3+ goals
32%
Baynounah SC 1+ goals
76%
Baynounah SC 2+ goals
42%
Baynounah SC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Al Ramms (draw refunded)
65%
Baynounah SC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ramms at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.17 · 42 matches

Baynounah SC away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.75 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ramms attack 1.24 + Baynounah SC defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.00

Baynounah SC attack 0.69 + Al Ramms defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Al Ramms scores more
51%
level
22%
Baynounah SC scores more
28%

Al Ramms at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Al Ramms will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Ramms vs Baynounah SC

Al Ramms beat Baynounah SC 3-1 in Division 1 on February 4, 2023.

The match was played at Al Rams Stadium in Al Rams.