Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Ramms vs Al Urooba — Division 1 2018

Al Ramms
Al Ramms
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al Urooba
Al Urooba
4/29/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 31Al Rams Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Al Ramms23%
×Draw23%
Al Urooba55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ramms
1.11
Al Urooba
1.85

Al Urooba creates 67% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 72 away

creates per match

Al Ramms
1.24
Al Urooba
1.54

allows per match

Al Ramms
2.17
Al Urooba
0.99

finishing

Al Ramms+0.00on par
Al Urooba+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ramms ↓

Al Urooba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Al Ramms or draw
45%
Al Ramms or Al Urooba
77%
Draw or Al Urooba
77%

Winning margin

Al Ramms wins by 2+
9%
Al Urooba wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Al Ramms 1+ goals
67%
Al Ramms 2+ goals
30%
Al Ramms 3+ goals
10%
Al Urooba 1+ goals
84%
Al Urooba 2+ goals
55%
Al Urooba 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Al Ramms (draw refunded)
29%
Al Urooba (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ramms at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.17 · 42 matches

Al Urooba away — creates 1.54, concedes 0.99 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ramms attack 1.24 + Al Urooba defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.11

Al Urooba attack 1.54 + Al Ramms defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Al Ramms scores more
23%
level
23%
Al Urooba scores more
55%

Al Urooba at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Al Urooba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Ramms vs Al Urooba

Al Ramms beat Al Urooba 2-1 in Division 1 on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Al Rams Stadium in Al Rams.