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Al Ramms vs Al Fujairah SC — Division 1 2018

Al Ramms
Al Ramms
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Al Fujairah SC
Al Fujairah SC
1/6/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 15Al Rams Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Al Ramms28%
×Draw23%
Al Fujairah SC48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ramms
1.30
Al Fujairah SC
1.77

Al Fujairah SC creates 36% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 73 away

creates per match

Al Ramms
1.24
Al Fujairah SC
1.36

allows per match

Al Ramms
2.17
Al Fujairah SC
1.36

finishing

Al Ramms+0.00on par
Al Fujairah SC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ramms ↓

Al Fujairah SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Al Ramms or draw
52%
Al Ramms or Al Fujairah SC
77%
Draw or Al Fujairah SC
72%

Winning margin

Al Ramms wins by 2+
12%
Al Fujairah SC wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Al Ramms 1+ goals
73%
Al Ramms 2+ goals
37%
Al Ramms 3+ goals
14%
Al Fujairah SC 1+ goals
83%
Al Fujairah SC 2+ goals
53%
Al Fujairah SC 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Al Ramms (draw refunded)
37%
Al Fujairah SC (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ramms at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.17 · 42 matches

Al Fujairah SC away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ramms attack 1.24 + Al Fujairah SC defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.30

Al Fujairah SC attack 1.36 + Al Ramms defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Al Ramms scores more
28%
level
23%
Al Fujairah SC scores more
48%

Al Fujairah SC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al Fujairah SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Ramms 4–1 Al Fujairah SC

Al Ramms beat Al Fujairah SC 4-1 in Division 1 on January 6, 2024.

The match was played at Al Rams Stadium in Al Rams.