Al-Raed 3–1 Al Orubah: Result & Stats | Pro League

Al-Raed

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Al Orubah

K. El Berkaoui 58', 24'

Saleh Al Amri 18'

I. Kandouss 11'

11/23/2024

Pro League · Round 11King Abdullah Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al-Raed50%

×Draw23%

Al Orubah27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-RaedExpected goals in this matchAl Orubah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.27

Al-Raed

1.82

Al Orubah

1.27

Al-Raed creates 43% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 17 away

1.23

creates per match

0.94

1.60

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

Al-Raed

1.23

Al Orubah

0.94

allows per match

Al-Raed

1.60

Al Orubah

2.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Raed+0.00on par

Al Orubah+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Raed ↓

Al Orubah →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Al-Raed or draw

73%

Al-Raed or Al Orubah

77%

Draw or Al Orubah

50%

Winning margin

Al-Raed wins by 2+

28%

Al Orubah wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Al-Raed 1+ goals

84%

Al-Raed 2+ goals

54%

Al-Raed 3+ goals

27%

Al Orubah 1+ goals

72%

Al Orubah 2+ goals

36%

Al Orubah 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Al-Raed (draw refunded)

65%

Al Orubah (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Raed at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.60 · 104 matches

Al Orubah away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Raed attack 1.23 + Al Orubah defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.82

Al Orubah attack 0.94 + Al-Raed defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al-Raed scores more

50%

level

23%

Al Orubah scores more

27%

Al-Raed at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al-Raed will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

K. El Berkaoui

Al-Raed · F

8.7

Match Events

11'

I. Kandouss↳ J. Guðmundsson

18'

Saleh Al Amri

24'

K. El Berkaoui↳ A. Sayoud

42'

Amir Saâyoud

42'

Ibrahim Al Zubaidi← Abdulmalek Al Shammari

42'

Cristian Tello← Fahad Al Zubaidi

53'

Karlo Muhar

58'

Fawaz Al Terais← J. Guðmundsson

58'

K. El Berkaoui↳ A. Sayoud

69'

Mubarak Al Rajeh← Hamad Al Jayzani

69'

Abdullah Al Yousif← Saleh Al Amri

72'

Mohammed Al Qarni← Hussain Al Shuwaysh

72'

Hamed Al Maghati← Nawaf Al Quamiri

77'

Zakaria Hawsawi

85'

Nawaf Sahli← K. El Berkaoui

85'

Naif Hazazi← M. Abeid

87'

Mathias Normann

90+4'

Thamer Al Khaibri← A. Sayoud

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-RaedAl

Overview

47%Possession53%

5Total Shots9

0Corners2

11Fouls5

Shots

5Total Shots9

3On Target2

2Off Target5

0Blocked2

4Inside Box4

1Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

475Total Passes528

393Accurate Passes430

83%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

11Fouls5

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1