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Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC — Pro League 2018

Al-Raed
Al-Raed
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Al-Ittihad FC
Al-Ittihad FC
5/15/2025Pro LeaguePro League · Round 32King Abdullah Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Al-Raed29%
×Draw24%
Al-Ittihad FC46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Raed
1.24
Al-Ittihad FC
1.63

Al-Ittihad FC creates 31% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 126 away

creates per match

Al-Raed
1.23
Al-Ittihad FC
1.72

allows per match

Al-Raed
1.54
Al-Ittihad FC
1.25

finishing

Al-Raed+0.00on par
Al-Ittihad FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Raed ↓

Al-Ittihad FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Al-Raed or draw
54%
Al-Raed or Al-Ittihad FC
76%
Draw or Al-Ittihad FC
71%

Winning margin

Al-Raed wins by 2+
12%
Al-Ittihad FC wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Al-Raed 1+ goals
71%
Al-Raed 2+ goals
35%
Al-Raed 3+ goals
13%
Al-Ittihad FC 1+ goals
80%
Al-Ittihad FC 2+ goals
48%
Al-Ittihad FC 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Al-Raed (draw refunded)
39%
Al-Ittihad FC (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Raed at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.54 · 109 matches

Al-Ittihad FC away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.25 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Raed attack 1.23 + Al-Ittihad FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.24

Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.72 + Al-Raed defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al-Raed scores more
29%
level
24%
Al-Ittihad FC scores more
46%

Al-Ittihad FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al-Ittihad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League: Al-Raed 1–3 Al-Ittihad FC

Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Raed 3-1 in Pro League on May 15, 2025.

The match was played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Buraidah.