Al-Raed 0–4 Al-Hilal Saudi FC: Result & Stats

Al-Raed

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

8/24/2023

Pro League · Round 3King Abdullah Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Al-Raed22%

×Draw22%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-RaedExpected goals in this matchAl-Hilal Saudi FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.92

Al-Raed

1.10

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

1.92

Al-Hilal Saudi FC creates 75% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 126 away

1.23

creates per match

2.29

1.54

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Al-Raed

1.23

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

2.29

allows per match

Al-Raed

1.54

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Raed+0.00on par

Al-Hilal Saudi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Raed ↓

Al-Hilal Saudi FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Al-Raed or draw

44%

Al-Raed or Al-Hilal Saudi FC

78%

Draw or Al-Hilal Saudi FC

78%

Winning margin

Al-Raed wins by 2+

8%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Al-Raed 1+ goals

67%

Al-Raed 2+ goals

30%

Al-Raed 3+ goals

10%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1+ goals

85%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2+ goals

57%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Al-Raed (draw refunded)

28%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Raed at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.54 · 109 matches

Al-Hilal Saudi FC away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.98 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Raed attack 1.23 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.10

Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 2.29 + Al-Raed defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Al-Raed scores more

22%

level

22%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores more

56%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff