Al-Raed 1–2 Al-Faisaly FC: Result & Stats

Al-Raed

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Al-Faisaly FC

4/27/2026

Division 1 · Round 31King Abdullah Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al-Raed45%

×Draw24%

Al-Faisaly FC31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-RaedExpected goals in this matchAl-Faisaly FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.35

Al-Raed

1.68

Al-Faisaly FC

1.35

Al-Raed creates 24% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

2.18

creates per match

1.47

1.24

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Al-Raed

2.18

Al-Faisaly FC

1.47

allows per match

Al-Raed

1.24

Al-Faisaly FC

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Raed+0.00on par

Al-Faisaly FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Raed ↓

Al-Faisaly FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Al-Raed or draw

69%

Al-Raed or Al-Faisaly FC

76%

Draw or Al-Faisaly FC

55%

Winning margin

Al-Raed wins by 2+

24%

Al-Faisaly FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Al-Raed 1+ goals

81%

Al-Raed 2+ goals

50%

Al-Raed 3+ goals

24%

Al-Faisaly FC 1+ goals

74%

Al-Faisaly FC 2+ goals

39%

Al-Faisaly FC 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Al-Raed (draw refunded)

59%

Al-Faisaly FC (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Raed at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

Al-Faisaly FC away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Raed attack 2.18 + Al-Faisaly FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.68

Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.47 + Al-Raed defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al-Raed scores more

45%

level

24%

Al-Faisaly FC scores more

31%

Al-Raed at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al-Raed will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff