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Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq — Pro League 2018

Al-Raed
Al-Raed
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Ettifaq
Al-Ettifaq
3/2/2025Pro LeaguePro League · Round 23Al Raid Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Al-Raed35%
×Draw25%
Al-Ettifaq39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Raed
1.34
Al-Ettifaq
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 109 home / 126 away

creates per match

Al-Raed
1.23
Al-Ettifaq
1.32

allows per match

Al-Raed
1.54
Al-Ettifaq
1.45

finishing

Al-Raed+0.00on par
Al-Ettifaq+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Raed ↓

Al-Ettifaq →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Al-Raed or draw
61%
Al-Raed or Al-Ettifaq
75%
Draw or Al-Ettifaq
65%

Winning margin

Al-Raed wins by 2+
16%
Al-Ettifaq wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Al-Raed 1+ goals
74%
Al-Raed 2+ goals
39%
Al-Raed 3+ goals
15%
Al-Ettifaq 1+ goals
76%
Al-Ettifaq 2+ goals
42%
Al-Ettifaq 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Al-Raed (draw refunded)
47%
Al-Ettifaq (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Raed at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.54 · 109 matches

Al-Ettifaq away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Raed attack 1.23 + Al-Ettifaq defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.34

Al-Ettifaq attack 1.32 + Al-Raed defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al-Raed scores more
35%
level
25%
Al-Ettifaq scores more
39%

Al-Ettifaq at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al-Ettifaq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League: Al-Raed 1–1 Al-Ettifaq

Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq drew 1-1 in Pro League on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Al Raid Club Stadium in Buraidah.