Al Rabta Kosti 1–0 Tuti: Result & Stats

Al Rabta Kosti

FT

1 – 0

Tuti

12/29/2022

Sudani Premier League · Round 17Kosti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Al Rabta Kosti41%

×Draw31%

Tuti28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Rabta KostiExpected goals in this matchTuti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.85

Al Rabta Kosti

1.09

Tuti

0.85

Al Rabta Kosti creates 28% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 44 away

0.94

creates per match

0.84

0.87

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Al Rabta Kosti

0.94

Tuti

0.84

allows per match

Al Rabta Kosti

0.87

Tuti

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Rabta Kosti+0.00on par

Tuti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Rabta Kosti ↓

Tuti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Al Rabta Kosti or draw

72%

Al Rabta Kosti or Tuti

69%

Draw or Tuti

59%

Winning margin

Al Rabta Kosti wins by 2+

17%

Tuti wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Al Rabta Kosti 1+ goals

66%

Al Rabta Kosti 2+ goals

30%

Al Rabta Kosti 3+ goals

10%

Tuti 1+ goals

57%

Tuti 2+ goals

21%

Tuti 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Al Rabta Kosti (draw refunded)

59%

Tuti (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Rabta Kosti at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.87 · 54 matches

Tuti away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.25 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Rabta Kosti attack 0.94 + Tuti defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.09

Tuti attack 0.84 + Al Rabta Kosti defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Rabta Kosti scores more

41%

level

31%

Tuti scores more

28%

Al Rabta Kosti at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Rabta Kosti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff