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Al Rabta Kosti vs Al Zoma Khartoum — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Rabta Kosti
Al Rabta Kosti
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Al Zoma Khartoum
Al Zoma Khartoum
3/21/2023Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 24Kosti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Al Rabta Kosti48%
×Draw29%
Al Zoma Khartoum23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Rabta Kosti
1.25
Al Zoma Khartoum
0.77

Al Rabta Kosti creates 62% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 14 away

creates per match

Al Rabta Kosti
0.93
Al Zoma Khartoum
0.71

allows per match

Al Rabta Kosti
0.84
Al Zoma Khartoum
1.57

finishing

Al Rabta Kosti+0.00on par
Al Zoma Khartoum+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Rabta Kosti ↓

Al Zoma Khartoum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Al Rabta Kosti or draw
77%
Al Rabta Kosti or Al Zoma Khartoum
71%
Draw or Al Zoma Khartoum
52%

Winning margin

Al Rabta Kosti wins by 2+
22%
Al Zoma Khartoum wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al Rabta Kosti 1+ goals
71%
Al Rabta Kosti 2+ goals
36%
Al Rabta Kosti 3+ goals
13%
Al Zoma Khartoum 1+ goals
54%
Al Zoma Khartoum 2+ goals
18%
Al Zoma Khartoum 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Al Rabta Kosti (draw refunded)
68%
Al Zoma Khartoum (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Rabta Kosti at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.84 · 56 matches

Al Zoma Khartoum away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Rabta Kosti attack 0.93 + Al Zoma Khartoum defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.25

Al Zoma Khartoum attack 0.71 + Al Rabta Kosti defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Al Rabta Kosti scores more
48%
level
29%
Al Zoma Khartoum scores more
23%

Al Rabta Kosti at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al Rabta Kosti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al Rabta Kosti 2–2 Al Zoma Khartoum

Al Rabta Kosti and Al Zoma Khartoum drew 2-2 in Sudani Premier League on March 21, 2023.

The match was played at Kosti Stadium in Kosti.