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Al Rabta Kosti vs Al Hilal Kadougli — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Rabta Kosti
Al Rabta Kosti
FT
2 – 0
Al Hilal Kadougli
Al Hilal Kadougli
2/19/2020Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 21Kosti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Al Rabta Kosti47%
×Draw29%
Al Hilal Kadougli24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Rabta Kosti
1.25
Al Hilal Kadougli
0.81

Al Rabta Kosti creates 54% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 43 away

creates per match

Al Rabta Kosti
0.93
Al Hilal Kadougli
0.79

allows per match

Al Rabta Kosti
0.84
Al Hilal Kadougli
1.56

finishing

Al Rabta Kosti+0.00on par
Al Hilal Kadougli+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Rabta Kosti ↓

Al Hilal Kadougli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Rabta Kosti or draw
76%
Al Rabta Kosti or Al Hilal Kadougli
71%
Draw or Al Hilal Kadougli
53%

Winning margin

Al Rabta Kosti wins by 2+
21%
Al Hilal Kadougli wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al Rabta Kosti 1+ goals
71%
Al Rabta Kosti 2+ goals
36%
Al Rabta Kosti 3+ goals
13%
Al Hilal Kadougli 1+ goals
56%
Al Hilal Kadougli 2+ goals
19%
Al Hilal Kadougli 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al Rabta Kosti (draw refunded)
66%
Al Hilal Kadougli (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Rabta Kosti at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.84 · 56 matches

Al Hilal Kadougli away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.56 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Rabta Kosti attack 0.93 + Al Hilal Kadougli defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.25

Al Hilal Kadougli attack 0.79 + Al Rabta Kosti defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Al Rabta Kosti scores more
47%
level
29%
Al Hilal Kadougli scores more
24%

Al Rabta Kosti at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al Rabta Kosti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al Rabta Kosti 2–0 Al Hilal Kadougli

Al Rabta Kosti beat Al Hilal Kadougli 2-0 in Sudani Premier League on February 19, 2020.

The match was played at Kosti Stadium in Kosti.