Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2–1 Erbil: Result & Stats

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Erbil

Mustafa Waleed Fatla 24'

Aymen Hussein 9' (pen)

Roa Youssef 5'

7/1/2024

Iraqi League · Round 36Al-Shaab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Al Quwa Al Jawiya47%

×Draw26%

Erbil27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Quwa Al JawiyaExpected goals in this matchErbil

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.08

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

1.50

Erbil

1.08

Al Quwa Al Jawiya creates 39% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 42 away

1.65

creates per match

1.40

0.77

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

1.65

Erbil

1.40

allows per match

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

0.77

Erbil

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Quwa Al Jawiya+0.00on par

Erbil+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Quwa Al Jawiya ↓

Erbil →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Al Quwa Al Jawiya or draw

73%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya or Erbil

74%

Draw or Erbil

53%

Winning margin

Al Quwa Al Jawiya wins by 2+

23%

Erbil wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1+ goals

78%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2+ goals

44%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 3+ goals

19%

Erbil 1+ goals

66%

Erbil 2+ goals

29%

Erbil 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Al Quwa Al Jawiya (draw refunded)

63%

Erbil (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Quwa Al Jawiya at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.77 · 43 matches

Erbil away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.36 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Quwa Al Jawiya attack 1.65 + Erbil defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.50

Erbil attack 1.40 + Al Quwa Al Jawiya defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Al Quwa Al Jawiya scores more

47%

level

26%

Erbil scores more

27%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al Quwa Al Jawiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

Roa Youssef

9'

Aymen HusseinPenalty

24'

Mustafa Waleed Fatla

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff