Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2–1 Altyn Asyr: Result & Stats

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Altyn Asyr

Hiran Ahmed 88'

C. Salazar 50'

M. Annaýew 70'

9/18/2024

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 1Al-Madina International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Al Quwa Al Jawiya50%

×Draw23%

Altyn Asyr27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Quwa Al JawiyaExpected goals in this matchAltyn Asyr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.29

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

1.82

Altyn Asyr

1.29

Al Quwa Al Jawiya creates 41% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 21 away

1.78

creates per match

1.57

1.00

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

1.78

Altyn Asyr

1.57

allows per match

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

1.00

Altyn Asyr

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Quwa Al Jawiya+0.00on par

Altyn Asyr+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Quwa Al Jawiya ↓

Altyn Asyr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Al Quwa Al Jawiya or draw

73%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya or Altyn Asyr

77%

Draw or Altyn Asyr

50%

Winning margin

Al Quwa Al Jawiya wins by 2+

27%

Altyn Asyr wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1+ goals

84%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2+ goals

54%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 3+ goals

27%

Altyn Asyr 1+ goals

72%

Altyn Asyr 2+ goals

37%

Altyn Asyr 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Al Quwa Al Jawiya (draw refunded)

65%

Altyn Asyr (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Quwa Al Jawiya at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Altyn Asyr away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Quwa Al Jawiya attack 1.78 + Altyn Asyr defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.82

Altyn Asyr attack 1.57 + Al Quwa Al Jawiya defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al Quwa Al Jawiya scores more

50%

level

23%

Altyn Asyr scores more

27%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al Quwa Al Jawiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

Mohammad Sami

Al Quwa Al Jawiya · M

8.2

Match Events

31'

B. Babayev

46'

B. Myradow← R. Halmammedow

50'

C. Salazar

68'

Ş. Durdyýew← B. Myradow

70'

M. Annaýew↳ H. Hojowow

72'

M. Annayev

72'

Mustafa Waleed Fatla← Saad Abdul Ameer

76'

A. Annamyradov← R. Myratberdiýew

79'

Mohammad Qasem← Mustafa Sadoun

79'

Hiran Ahmed← Mohammad Sami

82'

A. Annamyradov

84'

R. Tajiyev

84'

D. Mirsultanov← M. Annaýew

84'

M. Titow← S. Nurmuradow

86'

A. Isaiah← Safaa Hadi

86'

Alaa Abbas← C. Salazar

88'

Hiran Ahmed↳ Alaa Abbas

90+6'

D. Mirsoltanow

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlAltyn

Overview

66%Possession34%

22Total Shots6

5Corners1

7Fouls19

Shots

22Total Shots6

5On Target2

12Off Target3

5Blocked1

7Inside Box1

15Outside Box5

Passing

66%Possession34%

549Total Passes290

480Accurate Passes214

87%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls19

0Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1