Al Quwa Al Jawiya 4–0 Al Sinaah: Result & Stats

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al Sinaah

2/18/2023

Iraqi League · Round 17Al-Shaab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Al Quwa Al Jawiya58%

×Draw25%

Al Sinaah18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Quwa Al JawiyaExpected goals in this matchAl Sinaah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.77

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

1.63

Al Sinaah

0.77

Al Quwa Al Jawiya creates 112% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 32 away

1.81

creates per match

0.72

0.83

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

1.81

Al Sinaah

0.72

allows per match

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

0.83

Al Sinaah

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Quwa Al Jawiya+0.00on par

Al Sinaah+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Quwa Al Jawiya ↓

Al Sinaah →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Al Quwa Al Jawiya or draw

82%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya or Al Sinaah

75%

Draw or Al Sinaah

42%

Winning margin

Al Quwa Al Jawiya wins by 2+

32%

Al Sinaah wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1+ goals

80%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2+ goals

48%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 3+ goals

22%

Al Sinaah 1+ goals

54%

Al Sinaah 2+ goals

18%

Al Sinaah 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Al Quwa Al Jawiya (draw refunded)

77%

Al Sinaah (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Quwa Al Jawiya at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.83 · 111 matches

Al Sinaah away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Quwa Al Jawiya attack 1.81 + Al Sinaah defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.63

Al Sinaah attack 0.72 + Al Quwa Al Jawiya defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Al Quwa Al Jawiya scores more

58%

level

25%

Al Sinaah scores more

18%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Al Quwa Al Jawiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff