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Al-Qasim vs Naft Al-Janoob — Iraqi League 2020

Al-Qasim
Al-Qasim
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Naft Al-Janoob
Naft Al-Janoob
11/10/2023Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 4Al Kut Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Al-Qasim35%
×Draw29%
Naft Al-Janoob36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Qasim
1.11
Naft Al-Janoob
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 93 away

creates per match

Al-Qasim
0.98
Naft Al-Janoob
0.88

allows per match

Al-Qasim
1.40
Naft Al-Janoob
1.24

finishing

Al-Qasim+0.00on par
Naft Al-Janoob+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Qasim ↓

Naft Al-Janoob →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al-Qasim or draw
64%
Al-Qasim or Naft Al-Janoob
71%
Draw or Naft Al-Janoob
65%

Winning margin

Al-Qasim wins by 2+
14%
Naft Al-Janoob wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Al-Qasim 1+ goals
67%
Al-Qasim 2+ goals
30%
Al-Qasim 3+ goals
10%
Naft Al-Janoob 1+ goals
68%
Naft Al-Janoob 2+ goals
32%
Naft Al-Janoob 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al-Qasim (draw refunded)
49%
Naft Al-Janoob (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Qasim at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.40 · 108 matches

Naft Al-Janoob away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.24 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Qasim attack 0.98 + Naft Al-Janoob defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.11

Naft Al-Janoob attack 0.88 + Al-Qasim defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Al-Qasim scores more
35%
level
29%
Naft Al-Janoob scores more
36%

Naft Al-Janoob at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Naft Al-Janoob will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Qasim vs Naft Al-Janoob

Al-Qasim and Naft Al-Janoob drew 0-0 in Iraqi League on November 10, 2023.

The match was played at Al Kut Stadium in Al Kut.