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Al-Qasim vs Gharraf — Iraqi League 2025

Al-Qasim
Al-Qasim
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Gharraf
Gharraf
A. Basim 6'
B. Hassan 87'
K. Kuku 78', 31'
M. Saad 69'
A. Hadhri 40'
4/14/2026Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al-Qasim21%
×Draw24%
Gharraf54%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Qasim
0.97
Gharraf
1.70

Gharraf creates 75% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 19 away

creates per match

Al-Qasim
0.74
Gharraf
1.16

allows per match

Al-Qasim
2.24
Gharraf
1.21

finishing

Al-Qasim+0.00on par
Gharraf+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Qasim ↓

Gharraf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Al-Qasim or draw
46%
Al-Qasim or Gharraf
76%
Draw or Gharraf
79%

Winning margin

Al-Qasim wins by 2+
7%
Gharraf wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Al-Qasim 1+ goals
62%
Al-Qasim 2+ goals
25%
Al-Qasim 3+ goals
7%
Gharraf 1+ goals
82%
Gharraf 2+ goals
51%
Gharraf 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Al-Qasim (draw refunded)
28%
Gharraf (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Qasim at home — creates 0.74, concedes 2.24 · 34 matches

Gharraf away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Qasim attack 0.74 + Gharraf defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.97

Gharraf attack 1.16 + Al-Qasim defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Al-Qasim scores more
21%
level
24%
Gharraf scores more
54%

Gharraf at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Gharraf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
A. Basim
31'
K. Kuku
40'
A. Hadhri
69'
M. Saad
78'
K. Kuku
87'
B. Hassan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al-Qasim 1–5 Gharraf

Gharraf beat Al-Qasim 5-1 in Iraqi League on April 14, 2026.

Goals: A. Basim (6'), K. Kuku (31', 78'), A. Hadhri (40'), M. Saad (69'), B. Hassan (87').