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Al-Qasim vs Duhok — Iraqi League 2025

Al-Qasim
Al-Qasim
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Duhok
Duhok
P. Gwargis 88', 30'
K. Ali Hassan 76' (OG)
2/1/2026Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Al-Qasim24%
×Draw25%
Duhok52%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Qasim
1.04
Duhok
1.65

Duhok creates 59% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 42 away

creates per match

Al-Qasim
0.82
Duhok
1.26

allows per match

Al-Qasim
2.03
Duhok
1.26

finishing

Al-Qasim+0.00on par
Duhok+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Qasim ↓

Duhok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Al-Qasim or draw
48%
Al-Qasim or Duhok
75%
Draw or Duhok
76%

Winning margin

Al-Qasim wins by 2+
9%
Duhok wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Al-Qasim 1+ goals
65%
Al-Qasim 2+ goals
28%
Al-Qasim 3+ goals
9%
Duhok 1+ goals
81%
Duhok 2+ goals
49%
Duhok 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Al-Qasim (draw refunded)
32%
Duhok (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Qasim at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.03 · 38 matches

Duhok away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.26 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Qasim attack 0.82 + Duhok defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.04

Duhok attack 1.26 + Al-Qasim defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Al-Qasim scores more
24%
level
25%
Duhok scores more
52%

Duhok at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Duhok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
P. Gwargis
76'
K. Ali HassanOwn goal
88'
P. Gwargis

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Qasim vs Duhok

Duhok beat Al-Qasim 3-0 in Iraqi League on February 1, 2026.

Goals: P. Gwargis (30', 88'), K. Ali Hassan (76' o.g.).