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Al-Qasim vs Duhok — Iraqi League 2020

Al-Qasim
Al-Qasim
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Duhok
Duhok
6/24/2023Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 33Karbala Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Al-Qasim32%
×Draw28%
Duhok40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Qasim
1.07
Duhok
1.23

Duhok creates 15% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 77 away

creates per match

Al-Qasim
0.98
Duhok
1.05

allows per match

Al-Qasim
1.40
Duhok
1.16

finishing

Al-Qasim+0.00on par
Duhok+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Qasim ↓

Duhok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al-Qasim or draw
60%
Al-Qasim or Duhok
72%
Draw or Duhok
68%

Winning margin

Al-Qasim wins by 2+
12%
Duhok wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Al-Qasim 1+ goals
66%
Al-Qasim 2+ goals
29%
Al-Qasim 3+ goals
9%
Duhok 1+ goals
71%
Duhok 2+ goals
35%
Duhok 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Al-Qasim (draw refunded)
45%
Duhok (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Qasim at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.40 · 108 matches

Duhok away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.16 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Qasim attack 0.98 + Duhok defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.07

Duhok attack 1.05 + Al-Qasim defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al-Qasim scores more
32%
level
28%
Duhok scores more
40%

Duhok at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Duhok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al-Qasim 0–0 Duhok

Al-Qasim and Duhok drew 0-0 in Iraqi League on June 24, 2023.

The match was played at Karbala Stadium in Karbala.