Al-Qasim 0–1 Diyala: Result & Stats | Iraqi League

Al-Qasim

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Diyala

A. Sfaxi 76' (pen)

6/19/2025

Iraqi League · Round 36Al-Najaf International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Al-Qasim31%

×Draw27%

Diyala42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-QasimExpected goals in this matchDiyala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.31

Al-Qasim

1.09

Diyala

1.31

Diyala creates 20% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 37 away

0.97

creates per match

0.84

1.78

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Al-Qasim

0.97

Diyala

0.84

allows per match

Al-Qasim

1.78

Diyala

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Qasim+0.00on par

Diyala+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Qasim ↓

Diyala →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Al-Qasim or draw

58%

Al-Qasim or Diyala

73%

Draw or Diyala

69%

Winning margin

Al-Qasim wins by 2+

12%

Diyala wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Al-Qasim 1+ goals

66%

Al-Qasim 2+ goals

30%

Al-Qasim 3+ goals

10%

Diyala 1+ goals

73%

Diyala 2+ goals

38%

Diyala 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Al-Qasim (draw refunded)

43%

Diyala (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Qasim at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.78 · 58 matches

Diyala away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.22 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Qasim attack 0.97 + Diyala defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.09

Diyala attack 0.84 + Al-Qasim defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al-Qasim scores more

31%

level

27%

Diyala scores more

42%

Diyala at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Diyala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

76'

A. SfaxiPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff