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Al-Qasim vs Al Shorta — Iraqi League 2025

Al-Qasim
Al-Qasim
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Al Shorta
Al Shorta
H. Wahid 90+8' (pen)
H. Rahim 88'
Mohammed Dawood 73'
M. Al Mawas 15' (pen)
7/2/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 38Al-Shaab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Al-Qasim13%
×Draw19%
Al Shorta68%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Qasim
0.77
Al Shorta
2.11

Al Shorta creates 174% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 41 away

creates per match

Al-Qasim
0.76
Al Shorta
1.93

allows per match

Al-Qasim
2.30
Al Shorta
0.78

finishing

Al-Qasim+0.00on par
Al Shorta+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Qasim ↓

Al Shorta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–112%
0–213%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Al-Qasim or draw
32%
Al-Qasim or Al Shorta
81%
Draw or Al Shorta
87%

Winning margin

Al-Qasim wins by 2+
4%
Al Shorta wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Al-Qasim 1+ goals
54%
Al-Qasim 2+ goals
18%
Al-Qasim 3+ goals
4%
Al Shorta 1+ goals
88%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
62%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Al-Qasim (draw refunded)
16%
Al Shorta (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Qasim at home — creates 0.76, concedes 2.30 · 33 matches

Al Shorta away — creates 1.93, concedes 0.78 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Qasim attack 0.76 + Al Shorta defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.77

Al Shorta attack 1.93 + Al-Qasim defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Al-Qasim scores more
13%
level
19%
Al Shorta scores more
68%

Al Shorta at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Al Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
M. Al MawasPenalty
73'
Mohammed Dawood
88'
H. Rahim
90+8'
H. WahidPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al-Qasim 2–2 Al Shorta

Al-Qasim and Al Shorta drew 2-2 in Iraqi League on July 2, 2025.

Goals: M. Al Mawas (15' pen), Mohammed Dawood (73'), H. Rahim (88'), H. Wahid (90+8' pen).

The match was played at Al-Shaab Stadium in Baghdād.