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Al-Qasim vs Al Najaf — Iraqi League 2025

Al-Qasim
Al-Qasim
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Al Najaf
Al Najaf
E. Ogude 60'
Mohammad Dawood 75', 32'
4/15/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 22Karbala Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Al-Qasim30%
×Draw26%
Al Najaf44%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Qasim
1.13
Al Najaf
1.44

Al Najaf creates 27% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 36 away

creates per match

Al-Qasim
0.75
Al Najaf
0.78

allows per match

Al-Qasim
2.11
Al Najaf
1.50

finishing

Al-Qasim+0.00on par
Al Najaf+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Qasim ↓

Al Najaf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al-Qasim or draw
56%
Al-Qasim or Al Najaf
74%
Draw or Al Najaf
70%

Winning margin

Al-Qasim wins by 2+
12%
Al Najaf wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Al-Qasim 1+ goals
68%
Al-Qasim 2+ goals
31%
Al-Qasim 3+ goals
11%
Al Najaf 1+ goals
76%
Al Najaf 2+ goals
42%
Al Najaf 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Al-Qasim (draw refunded)
40%
Al Najaf (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Qasim at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.11 · 36 matches

Al Najaf away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Qasim attack 0.75 + Al Najaf defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.13

Al Najaf attack 0.78 + Al-Qasim defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al-Qasim scores more
30%
level
26%
Al Najaf scores more
44%

Al Najaf at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Najaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
Mohammad Dawood
60'
E. Ogude
75'
Mohammad Dawood

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al-Qasim 1–2 Al Najaf

Al Najaf beat Al-Qasim 2-1 in Iraqi League on April 15, 2024.

Goals: Mohammad Dawood (32', 75'), E. Ogude (60').

The match was played at Karbala Stadium in Karbala.