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Al-Qasim vs Al-Karma — Iraqi League 2025

Al-Qasim
Al-Qasim
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Al-Karma
Al-Karma
Haidar Majed 22'
Y. Oumarou 37', 27', 9'
5/7/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 32Al Najaf Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Al-Qasim21%
×Draw25%
Al-Karma54%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Qasim
0.93
Al-Karma
1.64

Al-Karma creates 76% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 30 away

creates per match

Al-Qasim
0.75
Al-Karma
1.17

allows per match

Al-Qasim
2.11
Al-Karma
1.10

finishing

Al-Qasim+0.00on par
Al-Karma+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Qasim ↓

Al-Karma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al-Qasim or draw
46%
Al-Qasim or Al-Karma
75%
Draw or Al-Karma
79%

Winning margin

Al-Qasim wins by 2+
7%
Al-Karma wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Al-Qasim 1+ goals
61%
Al-Qasim 2+ goals
24%
Al-Qasim 3+ goals
7%
Al-Karma 1+ goals
81%
Al-Karma 2+ goals
49%
Al-Karma 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Al-Qasim (draw refunded)
28%
Al-Karma (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Qasim at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.11 · 36 matches

Al-Karma away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Qasim attack 0.75 + Al-Karma defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.93

Al-Karma attack 1.17 + Al-Qasim defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Al-Qasim scores more
21%
level
25%
Al-Karma scores more
54%

Al-Karma at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Al-Karma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
Y. Oumarou
22'
Haidar Majed
27'
Y. Oumarou
37'
Y. Oumarou

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al-Qasim 1–3 Al-Karma

Al-Karma beat Al-Qasim 3-1 in Iraqi League on May 7, 2025.

Goals: Y. Oumarou (9', 27', 37'), Haidar Majed (22').

The match was played at Al Najaf Stadium in Najaf.