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Al Qaisoma vs Al Sahel — Division 1 2018

Al Qaisoma
Al Qaisoma
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Sahel
Al Sahel
10/18/2022Division 1Division 1 · Round 8Al-Batin FC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Al Qaisoma36%
×Draw27%
Al Sahel37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Qaisoma
1.26
Al Sahel
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 55 away

creates per match

Al Qaisoma
1.17
Al Sahel
1.07

allows per match

Al Qaisoma
1.47
Al Sahel
1.35

finishing

Al Qaisoma+0.00on par
Al Sahel+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Qaisoma ↓

Al Sahel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Qaisoma or draw
63%
Al Qaisoma or Al Sahel
73%
Draw or Al Sahel
64%

Winning margin

Al Qaisoma wins by 2+
16%
Al Sahel wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Al Qaisoma 1+ goals
72%
Al Qaisoma 2+ goals
36%
Al Qaisoma 3+ goals
13%
Al Sahel 1+ goals
72%
Al Sahel 2+ goals
36%
Al Sahel 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Al Qaisoma (draw refunded)
50%
Al Sahel (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Qaisoma at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.47 · 36 matches

Al Sahel away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.35 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Qaisoma attack 1.17 + Al Sahel defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.26

Al Sahel attack 1.07 + Al Qaisoma defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al Qaisoma scores more
36%
level
27%
Al Sahel scores more
37%

Al Sahel at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Qaisoma vs Al Sahel

Al Qaisoma and Al Sahel drew 0-0 in Division 1 on October 18, 2022.

The match was played at Al-Batin FC Stadium in Hafar Al-Batin.