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Al Qaisoma vs Al Jabalain — Division 1 2018

Al Qaisoma
Al Qaisoma
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Al Jabalain
Al Jabalain
8/22/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 2Al-Batin FC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Al Qaisoma32%
×Draw27%
Al Jabalain41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Qaisoma
1.14
Al Jabalain
1.32

Al Jabalain creates 16% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 128 away

creates per match

Al Qaisoma
1.17
Al Jabalain
1.17

allows per match

Al Qaisoma
1.47
Al Jabalain
1.11

finishing

Al Qaisoma+0.00on par
Al Jabalain+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Qaisoma ↓

Al Jabalain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Qaisoma or draw
59%
Al Qaisoma or Al Jabalain
73%
Draw or Al Jabalain
68%

Winning margin

Al Qaisoma wins by 2+
13%
Al Jabalain wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Al Qaisoma 1+ goals
68%
Al Qaisoma 2+ goals
32%
Al Qaisoma 3+ goals
11%
Al Jabalain 1+ goals
73%
Al Jabalain 2+ goals
38%
Al Jabalain 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Al Qaisoma (draw refunded)
44%
Al Jabalain (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Qaisoma at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.47 · 36 matches

Al Jabalain away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.11 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Qaisoma attack 1.17 + Al Jabalain defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.14

Al Jabalain attack 1.17 + Al Qaisoma defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Qaisoma scores more
32%
level
27%
Al Jabalain scores more
41%

Al Jabalain at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Jabalain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Qaisoma 1–2 Al Jabalain

Al Jabalain beat Al Qaisoma 2-1 in Division 1 on August 22, 2023.

The match was played at Al-Batin FC Stadium in Hafar Al-Batin.