Al Qaisoma 1–2 Al-Faisaly FC: Result & Stats

Al Qaisoma

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Al-Faisaly FC

4/17/2024

Division 1 · Round 28Al-Batin FC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Al Qaisoma30%

×Draw26%

Al-Faisaly FC44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al QaisomaExpected goals in this matchAl-Faisaly FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.47

Al Qaisoma

1.17

Al-Faisaly FC

1.47

Al-Faisaly FC creates 26% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 68 away

1.17

creates per match

1.47

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Al Qaisoma

1.17

Al-Faisaly FC

1.47

allows per match

Al Qaisoma

1.47

Al-Faisaly FC

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Qaisoma+0.00on par

Al-Faisaly FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Qaisoma ↓

Al-Faisaly FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Al Qaisoma or draw

56%

Al Qaisoma or Al-Faisaly FC

74%

Draw or Al-Faisaly FC

70%

Winning margin

Al Qaisoma wins by 2+

12%

Al-Faisaly FC wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Al Qaisoma 1+ goals

69%

Al Qaisoma 2+ goals

33%

Al Qaisoma 3+ goals

11%

Al-Faisaly FC 1+ goals

77%

Al-Faisaly FC 2+ goals

43%

Al-Faisaly FC 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Al Qaisoma (draw refunded)

41%

Al-Faisaly FC (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Qaisoma at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.47 · 36 matches

Al-Faisaly FC away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Qaisoma attack 1.17 + Al-Faisaly FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.47 + Al Qaisoma defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Qaisoma scores more

30%

level

26%

Al-Faisaly FC scores more

44%

Al-Faisaly FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al-Faisaly FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff