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Al Qaisoma vs Al Arabi SC — Division 1 2018

Al Qaisoma
Al Qaisoma
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Al Arabi SC
Al Arabi SC
8/30/2022Division 1Division 1 · Round 2Al-Batin FC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Al Qaisoma38%
×Draw26%
Al Arabi SC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Qaisoma
1.38
Al Arabi SC
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 68 away

creates per match

Al Qaisoma
1.17
Al Arabi SC
1.18

allows per match

Al Qaisoma
1.47
Al Arabi SC
1.59

finishing

Al Qaisoma+0.00on par
Al Arabi SC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Qaisoma ↓

Al Arabi SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Al Qaisoma or draw
64%
Al Qaisoma or Al Arabi SC
74%
Draw or Al Arabi SC
62%

Winning margin

Al Qaisoma wins by 2+
18%
Al Arabi SC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Al Qaisoma 1+ goals
75%
Al Qaisoma 2+ goals
40%
Al Qaisoma 3+ goals
16%
Al Arabi SC 1+ goals
73%
Al Arabi SC 2+ goals
38%
Al Arabi SC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Al Qaisoma (draw refunded)
52%
Al Arabi SC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Qaisoma at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.47 · 36 matches

Al Arabi SC away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.59 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Qaisoma attack 1.17 + Al Arabi SC defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.38

Al Arabi SC attack 1.18 + Al Qaisoma defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Qaisoma scores more
38%
level
26%
Al Arabi SC scores more
36%

Al Qaisoma at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Qaisoma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Qaisoma vs Al Arabi SC

Al Qaisoma and Al Arabi SC drew 2-2 in Division 1 on August 30, 2022.

The match was played at Al-Batin FC Stadium in Hafar Al-Batin.